Wait: Steel prices will come down

Jim Waldrop · Post by **Jim Waldrop** » 15 Oct 2008 4:53 pm

Ben, you are on the right track. The current financial crisis is not the ordinary garden variety type. We are potentially facing the worse economic downturn since the Great Depression. There is even a small probability that we could slip into a uncontrolled defation, commonly known as a depression. If this thing gets bad then every product in the country will be affected.. The question then would be not how much does it cost but is there anyone left making them.

Mark Eaton · Post by **Mark Eaton** » 15 Oct 2008 5:06 pm

If the pedal steel market weren't so "niche-like," we probably would see some Chinese made guitars by now.

There are two brands of resonator guitars built in China now that were designed by prominent American dobro luthiers: Gold Tone Paul Beard Signature, and the Wechter/Scheerhorn.

Carter would seem like a logical choice to have a pedal steel of pretty decent quality made in China that might even be better quality than the U.S. made Carter Starter, and perhaps more aesthetically appealing as well.

Bobby Boggs · Post by **Bobby Boggs** » 15 Oct 2008 5:33 pm

I doubt that they will go down. The fact remains that the instrument is difficult, if not downright impossible, to get started on unless you are pretty well endowed with dollars

It seems a lot folks seem to think that we all started out on a new Emmons, or name your favorite brand. I started out on a hand me down JM Fields or Sears 6 string piece of junk. The guitar had one of the tuning keys broke off. My folks were too poor to spring for one. So you had to tune the other 5 strings to the string that had no key.

Now keep in mind I wanted a Bigsby or Sho~Bud. But This is what I got. $:\$ My next guitar was a used low end Gibson 6 string. Then a triple 8 Gibson with home made pedals.After that. Then a Bud and on up the line.

Now not everyone in my age group had this rough. I'm in the darn near 50 crowd. But a lot of us did. And the generation before me. Most everyone, unless they played with a name act. Started out with home made pedals. Yet, somehow we turned out alright.

The bottom line. If you want to bad enough? And have the talent? You will make a steel player. Without the above mentioned. You can buy a new Zum or whatever every year. But you'll never be much of a player.

Most everyone that buys a high dollar, ($4000 and up.) guitar.Including myself. Buy's it cause we want it. Not because we need it.

Now most of the starter steels don't play very good compared to todays Pro models. Still better than a Bigsby though.

But all the notes are still there. They tune pretty good. And sound good. In good hands. Will a pro player sound better on a pro guitar? You bet. But it can still be done on a starter. As a matter of fact. Most of todays starter PSG's have more knee pedal changes that Lloyd Green has on his pro model.

Bottom line. With the tons of teaching materials.You can even find it used, It's easier now to learn to play pedal steel than ever. And more affordable.......bb

James Morehead · Post by **James Morehead** » 15 Oct 2008 6:28 pm

The used market"S" will get better, and the new markets will slow some what. I doubt new prices will come down, or steel builders will be pulling money out of THEIR pockets to buy material. They can only pass on what prices were passed on to them. New steel guitar purchases may dwindle. Supply and demand, if you have spending power. MHO

Jeff Hyman · Post by **Jeff Hyman** » 15 Oct 2008 6:50 pm

Building and marketing PSG is a business. It is imperative that any business:

1. Know its market
2. Know its cost-of-goods
3. Know its fixed overhead
4. Know how to make a profit, or it will be out of business.
5. Know the industry wholesale cost and contacts for parts.
6. Know the qualified reliable sub-contractors if needed.
7. Be honest with the customer and themselves.
8. Have qualified workers that know how its done.

A guy who takes his time to build a quality product, with a great paint job, or fine hardwoods, and top quality metals, and fabulous workmanship and craftsmanship... is worth more then a PSG without that TLC. Weither prices go up or down, you get what you pay for.

A good PSG stimulus package would be if Erv put his collection on sale. :-) Stocks would rise, 401K plans would recover, world peace, no more hunger....

Stan Paxton · Post by **Stan Paxton** » 16 Oct 2008 4:57 am

And Bro Erv being the humanitarian that he is ........

(for President, maybe?)

Jan Dunn · Post by **Jan Dunn** » 16 Oct 2008 5:18 am

My own experience selling a Ric and watching Rics on eBay seems to indicate (at least to me) a definite decrease in the price these instruments are going for compared to 6 months or a year ago. PSG supply side is different so I can't even guess what the used PSG market effect will be. Certainly new guitars will have to reflect increased material costs. Maybe I've finally been cured of GAS.

Erv Niehaus · Post by **Erv Niehaus** » 16 Oct 2008 6:46 am

Gary,
Eddie's telephone number is 705-549-3033.
Now's your chance to make a killing in the pedal steel business!

Stan,
If I'm elected president, I promise a new pedal steel in every bedroom!!!

Don Drummer · Post by **Don Drummer** » 16 Oct 2008 7:23 am

Let's think about this price thing for a minute as it relates to other musical instruments. I think it is great that most steels are manufactured in the USA. Everything I use on stage minus some Yamaha effects are made in this country and I take a certain pride in this. On the other hand I think it would be a nice thing if some off shore MFG. could produce a decent pedal steel along the lines of Wal-Marts First Act line if only to chum up some interest in the youth market. Think about it . More Pedal Students for teachers ( I had one three years ago), more kids actually seeing the instrument, more kids using the instrument,recording and posting there efforts on the internet My Space sites. And guess what? Some will actually get proficient and want something better. I see it all the time teaching mainly 6 string and Bass. I didn,t think much of the Wal-Mart product when the first came out but they have improved quality wise. If a kid could afford a PSG for a couple hundred bucks to get started i think it would be a win-win situation for all of us.

Ben Jones · Post by **Ben Jones** » 16 Oct 2008 8:01 am

Erv Niehaus wrote: Stan,
If I'm elected president, I promise a new pedal steel in every bedroom!!!

Now THERE is a platform I can get behind!
I had thought that Nashville had a steel guitar in every room. I was bummed out when they had the debate in Nashville and Tom Brokaw didnt even have the common decency to ask his questions while seated behind a pedal steel guitar.
He could have played steel guitar rag really loud when the speakers were going over their time limit.
Very disappointing.

Erv Niehaus · Post by **Erv Niehaus** » 16 Oct 2008 8:11 am

I am presently working on a pedal steel made in Japan; the Excel.
However, this is not an entry level instrument. It is very well made and certainly not built for the cost conscious buyer.

Ron ! · Post by **Ron !** » 16 Oct 2008 8:37 am

Gary.......last time I talked to Gary he wanted $500.000 for his business...machines, paterns etc etc...the whole kitankaboodle.

chris ivey · Post by **chris ivey** » 16 Oct 2008 11:12 am

how much were nashville club pickers making in 1970 a nite? ...if the lucky ones are now getting the inflated pay of $20...

Mark Eaton · Post by **Mark Eaton** » 16 Oct 2008 12:15 pm

Erv Niehaus wrote:I am presently working on a pedal steel made in Japan; the Excel.
However, this is not an entry level instrument. It is very well made and certainly not built for the cost conscious buyer.

It's been decades since the moniker "Made in Japan" on a product has had anything even remotely to do with having a negative connotation, and of course Excel makes a beautiful steel guitar.

Erv Niehaus · Post by **Erv Niehaus** » 16 Oct 2008 12:18 pm

Mark,
You are exactly right!
I can remember years ago when I would go into a farm fleet store and there would be a display of tools "made in Japan" and they were soooo poorly made that you didn't even want to take them home.

Brian Kurlychek · Post by **Brian Kurlychek** » 16 Oct 2008 2:22 pm

Just like any market, the steel market will have it's cycles.

I can't see the new market prices coming down due to costs of making them. I would guess, that there is a danger of companies going out of business due to lack of orders, or just plain making less in this economy, and therefore fueling used sales.

Eventually the used sales will pick up and the supply will equal out and the demand for new will begin again.

I would think right now would be an excellent time to buy up some bargain priced steels if you had the money. The value is there. The prices are just insane compared to when I was looking just a few months ago.

Lack of movement in the used market will cause prices to drop, and make used steels seem more attractive than new ones pricewise. When I purchased my steel just a short while ago, the difference between used and new (both price & risk) was not enough to influence a used purchase. Now used models are very attractive in some cases.

If some of these builders go out of business it will just make what is already out there worth more money.

But as everyone knows, the price of an item is worth only what a buyer is willing to pay for it at any given point in time. I doubt however, that you will find any pro model in the sub 1000 range any time soon but I could be wrong.

Bobby Boggs · Post by **Bobby Boggs** » 16 Oct 2008 5:16 pm

I don't think you can build and export, Just for example. A Carter Starter any cheaper in Japan than you can build one the USA ?? Maybe China ??

I noticed Guitar Center is offering a Carter Starter for $34 per month. That's pretty affordable in this day and age...

Gary Preston · Post by **Gary Preston** » 16 Oct 2008 5:49 pm

A Pedal Steel in every bedroom ! Erv you have my vote for President . P.S. if you need a running mate just let me know

Guys please understand this one thing . Not everyone has the desire to build steel guitars . I'm thankful for those that do . It doesn't make any difference what we think ,if we want a new guitar and can somewhat afford one we will buy one . No one in their right mind will ever say (i don't think ) i should have paid more for my new guitar than i did ! There could be some takers out there somewhere who knows ? Just for fun i will through this in . I work for a multi-multi million dollar a year company . ( i did say this before ) . I showed a pedal steel to the manager of the ingenerring dept . He is a very smart man . He told me after he saw the guitar ( this would be easy ) ! As i said before we have the wood shops and metal shops with the laser cnc machines . I asked the President of the company if he was interested in building steel guitars and he said no ! His answer is a blessing to the rest of the world believe me ! We have over 1300 employees with sales offices all over
the U.S.A. and out of country ! As i said his answer was good for all as we know it ! Sorry for the long post .

Marty Holmes · Post by **Marty Holmes** » 16 Oct 2008 6:28 pm

When Jackson steel guitars came out they built a guitar,which was the blackjack with 3 pedals and two knee lever's that cost just under a $1000.00,this was a pro single neck not a begginer i was impressed.Now they have taken the 3 pedal two knee lever guitar off of there web site,now there cheapest guitar they build is $1995.00.this is pure "T" total BULL F%&#!* S#*!.I don't mean any offense to any one,but for one i don't have $2000.00 or more just lying around in my change jar to just blow off.I could justify $1000.00 come tax return time,but it's kinda hard to come up with over $1800.00 when i only make $1400.00 a month ,two two year old twin girls to take care of and bills out the A$$.My point being dont take an excellent reasonably priced product off of the market,not everyone can afford to pay over $2000.00 for a new guitar,how does anyone expect someone to want to learn an instrument so highly priced.Don't screw the little man because he may be signing your check someday!!!

Don Benoit · Post by **Don Benoit** » 16 Oct 2008 6:49 pm

The US and Europe are entering a deep recession. Due to loss of jobs in the near term, some steels that are in the closet will be up for sale very soon.

I predict that China will soon be making steels. Japanese product were not well made at first but they are first rate quality now and given time, Chinese products will also improve in quality.

I have seen used steel guitar prices coming down on the forum already. There are excellent quality used MSA D-10's selling for $1200 to $1500!

Post by **Dave Mudgett** » 16 Oct 2008 9:05 pm

There are excellent quality used MSA D-10's selling for $1200 to $1500!

I doubt however, that you will find any pro model in the sub 1000 range any time soon but I could be wrong.

Excellent quality used MSA D-10 Classics have been selling for that kind of money for a long time now - in fact, that's higher than they were selling for a few years ago. They've been a bargain for a while now. Look at used BMIs - I still see nice S-10s under a grand, and it's been that way for a while.

I agree that there will probably be some bargains in used guitars, at least until this credit crunch eases up - you can probably take advantage of people in bad straits, but that's what that is about, IMHO. I honestly don't think this will be permanent, so if you want to take advantage, you probably better get your dough together and start trolling.

As far as the vintage instrument thing goes - those prices had a local maximum a couple of years ago. In fact, there was a frenzy of price increases for a year or two before this - the price of cool old Gibsons and Fenders doubled or tripled. That's cooled off somewhat because the market got seriously overheated with non-US investors taking advantage of favorable exchange rates. Things will probably slide for a while, but I really don't think it will last indefinitely. I'm sorry, but there are no more 50s-60s Gibsons and Fenders, or 30s-50s Martins and Gretsches being made. And even with prices cooled off a bit, it's still $10 grand and up for the nice stuff in that category.

I just don't see the reason to bitterly gripe about a brand new, pro-grade PSG for $1800. That's $360 in 1973 dollars, and I would have given my eye teeth for such a guitar at that price then. Junk Mavericks were $450 back then. A pro-level guitar was pushing a grand, which, as I stated earlier, is comparable to about $5,000 in 2008 dollars. OK, maybe you could find a bargain one for $700-800, which is comparable to about $3500-4000 now. Those kind of prices kept me on a 6-string back then.

I still say pedal steel guitars are a bargain. A really good American-made reissue Strat or Tele or any Les Paul Standard/Custom is pushing a couple of grand. Sure, you can get a lesser US-made or good-quality offshore model for less, but you can also get a perfectly workable US-made PSG for under a grand - Carter Starter, GFI starter, or Zum Stage One. A Tele/Strat is a slab of wood routed out to take pickups with a bolt-on neck attached - anybody with a minimal wood shop and minimal woodworking skills can slap one together. Nothing remotely comparable to the amount of work on a PSG. No way you're gonna buy commodity parts off-the-shelf to build a good one - somebody's gonna have to machine the parts.

Mark Wayne · Post by **Mark Wayne** » 16 Oct 2008 9:19 pm

With regards to desiring a steel:

If you WANT one, you'll find a way (no matter what the cost) to get one, no matter how high the price goes up. A second job, borrowing $ from the relatives..whatever the means. If you want one you'll get one

Mark Eaton · Post by **Mark Eaton** » 17 Oct 2008 6:47 am

Mark of course you are correct, when you are referring to adults.

But the key is getting kids started on the instrument. You can buy a passable, decent Chinese made starter acoustic or electric guitar for $150.

If a kid shows a driving desire, a lot of parents will fork out $500-$1000 for a Carter Starter, or some other used steel in decent condition - but a lot can't, or won't.

There may never be a day that you walk into a Guitar Center store and see maybe three Chinese produced S-10's for say $300-$350 out on the floor, due to the niche aspect of the instrument. But then again, if that day comes, X amount of years from now there could possibly be a lot of participation on this forum from teenagers.

Bobby Boggs · Post by **Bobby Boggs** » 17 Oct 2008 9:12 am

I see Marks point. I just don't beleive the market is there for any Co, to set up shop even in China and make a profit. Robert R with his record deal and all the TV exposure hasn't created a hugh market. And I think untill pedal steel becomes a household name. There will be no such market.Who's going to make pedal steel a houshold name?? I don't know. I've waited 30 years for it to happen. I really don't see it happing in my life time. If PSG ever becomes a dominant instrument in rap. It may happen.

Maybe I'm out of touch? But the kids I know.And they're not rich either. All have there own TV, computer,Cell phone, Cars, And I-pods and other stuff I don't even have.

Again, as stated. I noticed Guitar Center was offering a Carter Starter for $34 Month. Wouldn't that be like giving up 2 trips to movies a month? I paid for my 1st Pro pedal guitar working the hot dusty soybean fields here in South Carolina. But only the illegals do that any more. Are our children spoiled? I guess not. Maybe I'm just a hard A$$.........bb

Don Brown, Sr. · Post by **Don Brown, Sr.** » 17 Oct 2008 5:56 pm

Have I missed something? Has anything that's sent here from China, ever been worth a damn? If so, I've not yet found that to be my experience.

Yet, nearly everything you buy today, look and you'll find somewhere or other, "Made in China"

Including copies of Gibson, Fender and many more, well known brands.

I'd rather see the prices go up in USA products than to see buying inferior products made elsewhere.

Just my person opinion.

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